Not just more data...more devices using more data

Written by Iain Gillott, February 20, 2014 

Posted with permission from iGR 

iGR just completed work on its latest global mobile bandwidth forecast - the study was published earlier this week.  As expected, the worldwide mobile data traffic increased again in 2013 and is forecast to keep growing through 2018.  In fact, by 2018, we expect the world's mobile subscribers to consume 13.5 million terabytes of data per month.  For those who are counting, that is about 13,500 billion MB a month.

What is interesting in this year's study is that iGR also looked at the amount of mobile data consumed per connection, as well as per subscriber.  In order to determine the amount of mobile data being used, iGR’s mobile data traffic model first estimates the amount of bandwidth consumed by a given activity, such as checking email, streaming music or video, or checking social sites, on a per application or per use basis. 

iGR has created subscriber usage profiles based on its primary and secondary research and has divided subscribers into four different usage categories: light, medium, heavy and extreme. In the mobile data traffic model, these subscriber categories are defined by the activities and applications that tend to be used by that type of subscriber, as well as by the duration of the activity, transmission time, and frequency of use, such as number of times per day, week or month. The mobile data forecast determines the amount of mobile data traffic in megabytes per month for each type of subscriber.

And since we know how many devices each subscriber has, we can then forecast the mobile data bandwidth used per connection assuming that each device is a single connection on the network. This is a valuable metric since it not only shows the bandwidth per subscriber but also the signaling load on the networks - more devices connected to the network result in more signaling traffic.

Of course, as more mobile computing devices launch – tablets being one top-of-mind example – the expectation is that each individual (or household, at least) will have multiple mobile devices. An iPhone user would also become an iPad user; a Samsung Galaxy 5 user would become a Samsung tablet user; either smartphone user might also have a laptop computer (and possibly desktop computer, game console and/or Internet-enabled TV or Roku / Apple TV / etc.).   In addition, more and more consumers will also start to drive vehicles with connected car applications.

From a bandwidth demand perspective, it is important to note that iGR does not believe that a smartphone plus tablet user who also drives a connected car will suddenly begin consuming two or three times as much data as they had been on their smartphone. It is likely that they will consume more mobile data, but it is equally likely that such a user will offload usage and content consumption to the device(s) they feel are most appropriate to the task and/or their circumstance. So, iGR expects a net 30 to 40 percent increase in mobile data consumption (on average) as devices are added – but not a doubling or tripling of consumption.

Another way to consider this is through an analogy: just because someone buys a third pair of shoes does not mean that they walk three times as far. Similarly, when iPod owners were buying the first iPhones, they did not suddenly begin buying/listening to twice the amount of music. They simply offloaded a percentage of their consumption from the iPod to the iPhone – and that percentage varied per person. Of course, there might have been an uptick in listening/buying since their phone might be with them more often than the iPod.

So on a per-connection or device basis, the amount of bandwidth increases in each region of the world.  The trends are different in each region of course, and the rate of growth varies.  There are also differences in the bandwidth growth per subscriber and per connection in the same region - this is a complex model.  iGR's model shows therefore that as each subscriber uses more bandwidth, they are doing so on more devices and more varied types of devices. Thus the signaling load on the networks will also increase.

iGR is a market strategy consultancy focused on the wireless and mobile communications industry. Founded in 2000 by Iain Gillott, one of the industry's leading analysts, iGR researches and analyzes the impact new wireless and mobile technologies will have on industries, the competitive landscape and on a company's strategic business plan.